HOW I THINK ABOUT TOMORROW

One big reason I write these essays is so I can work out for myself what the facts on the ground say about what’s next, knowing full well that most efforts to predict even the near future will fail (I will never ever be as accurate as I was here on March 2 2020).

Basically — what’s the near-term product of (all the inputs or shocks we’re experiencing right now) x (people affected)?

And then what comes after that?

There are two practical questions related to these: how accurate are the answers, and how far out can we predict and adjust for them?

Well, it depends, and it depends.

Before we dive into how I try to think about them, let’s take a look around.

If it feels a little bit like everything is chaos right now, you’re not alone. Here is a very incomplete list of what’s on my mind just this morning:

• Ukraine

• Israel, Palestine, Hezbollah, Iran, China

• Solar and wind

• India growth and nationalism

• Africa growth and coups

• Antarctica ice

• US economy

• Inflation

• Acapulco

• The 2023 elections

• The 2024 elections

• Fertilizers

• Rice

• AI disinformation

• Old fashioned disinformation

• Gas disinformation

• South American heat

• Fossil fuel subsidies

• Endless shootings

• EV charging

• The care economy

• Global debt

• Vaccine inequity/hesitancy

• US home ownership affordability

• Chinese EV’s

• Google on trial

• Hydrogen

• Canadian wildfires

• Educational inequality

• Toyota’s mythical solid-state batteries

• UK clean energy pullback

• Immigration everywhere, deportations

• El Niño

• Rio Negro water levels

• Malaria vaccines/spreading

• Auto union strike

• US House of Representatives...issues

• Colorado River water rights negotiations

• Chevron-Hess

• 1989 (Taylor’s Version) (Deluxe Edition)

Great, so. It’s a lot.

It’s always been a lot, of course, but globalism, the EU, social networks, food and fossil fuels (and where they intersect, like fertilizers), climate change, Xi, Putin, Trump, Netanyahu, TSMC, Brexit, the transition away from fossil fuels, inflation, and COVID have reshaped, tied together, and then hastily untied many of the fundamental constructs of the last four decades.

Which is why you hear a lot now about the polycris(es), a multipolar world, etc.

So how do I usually try to understand these? Besides Klonopin or gummies?

Well, I find it’s helpful to start with two fundamental questions:

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